10 questions for the top ATP 10 at Indian Wells: Is Sinner the favourite?

The top stars from the ATP and WTA tours will be battling it out at Indian Wells over the next fortnight.

Carlos Alcaraz is the defending men’s champion while Elena Rybakina won the women’s title in 2023.

As the tournament gets underway in California we pose 10 questions for the top 10 players on each tour, starting with the ATP Tour…

Was Australian Open just a blip? Novak Djokovic will return to Indian Wells for the first time since 2019, having not been able to play the last few years due to being unvaccinated. In terms of win rate this is one of Djokovic’s most successful Masters events (five titles from 14 appearances and a 50–9 win-loss record). However, he hasn’t made it past the fourth round since his last win in 2016. His below-par showing at the Australian Open, where he was totally outplayed by Jannik Sinner in the semis, also raised a slight question about whether his unbeatable aura is slipping.

Will Alcaraz consider changes? Indian Wells in 2022 was one of the first big events where Carlos Alcaraz really burst onto the scene, lighting up the tournament with a spectacular brand of tennis to reach the semis. He has continued to entertain and thrill crowds plenty since then, but the results have not been quite as red hot as the performances over the last six months. He has not reached a final since Cincinnati last summer and has lost three of nine matches this season. Might a tweak be in order after suggestions at the Australian Open that he was too much of a “showman” at times?

Is Sinner the favourite? Recently described as “the big one right now” in men’s tennis by Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner enters Indian Wells riding a 15-match winning streak. He hasn’t lost since being beaten by Djokovic in the final of the Nitto ATP Finals in December and looks set for a very big year if his sizzling form continues. With confidence levels sky high, he should start as the favourite for the title.

Can Medvedev solve “energy” puzzle? Daniil Medvedev has probably had an 8/10 or 9/10 start to the season, reaching the Australian Open final and semis in Dubai. But the slightly surprising message after defeat to Ugo Humbert in Dubai was that more “energy” is needed for him to have success at Indian Wells. “It could be physical. It could be mental. Sometimes you need one break point… here I didn’t have it. As I say, the actual reason I don’t know. I have a possibility that it was injury, whatever. But this has to change if I want to win next tournaments, if I want to be better.” At his best, Medvedev is a definite contender.

Contender or not? Alexander Zverev looked almost at pre-2022 French Open injury level when he reached the semi-finals of the Australian Open, especially in his impressive quarter-final win over Carlos Alcaraz. Then he lost in the Los Cabos semis and cut a frustrated figure after losing his opening match at the Mexican Open. Which makes it hard to assess whether he’s a leading challenger for the title in Indian Wells or not.

Will Mouratoglou partnership sparkle? Holger Rune’s first week with Patrick Mouratoglou back on his coaching team produced a decent result as he made the semi-finals of the Mexican Open. Having been called a “rough diamond” by former coach Boris Becker at the Australian Open, it’s clear that Rune still has plenty to shine up, and Mouratoglou might be the best person for the job.

How far can tie-breaks take Hurkacz? Hubert Hurkacz plays a lot of tie-breaks. He’s played 19 matches this year and all but three have had at least one tie-breaker. In his last five matches he’s contested 10 tie-breakers. Is that a recipe for success? It seems to be working out pretty well for big-serving Hurkacz, who’s made two quarter-finals at Indian Wells and could go as far again if – stating the glaringly obvious – he is sending down bags of aces.

Can Ruud continue impressive form? Casper Ruud has had a sneaky-unexpectedly good start to the year. After a dip in 2023, he’s just made back-to-back finals in Los Cabos and Acapulco and has been playing some excellent tennis again, His strong February, which included wins over Stefanos Tstisipas, Holger Rune and Ben Shelton, has got him back in the top 10 and with not many points to defend until the clay season he’s one to watch over the Sunshine Double.

Will scrambling skills make De Minaur a genuine threat? There was a point in the final of the Mexican Open that highlighted everything that Alex de Minaur is best at. It was De Minaur scrambling around the court, chasing down shots, anticipating the next one and putting balls back into play, before Ruud eventually missed and was left only with a wry smile on his face. De Minaur, who has been compared to former world No. 3 David Ferrer by Todd Woodbridge, has also added more to his game than just elite scrambling over the last year and could be a threat at Indian Wells.