A blip or a bigger issue? What to read into Djokovic's early-season form

Novak Djokovic has not been at his best in 2024. That much we know, that much is not debatable, because Djokovic has said it himself.

But is the world No. 1’s dip in form a sign of things to come two months ahead of turning 37? Or just an early-season hiccup?

Whenever Djokovic has lost at Grand Slams in recent years, he has bounced back strongly.

After losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final last summer, he reeled off a 19-match winning streak. When he was beaten in the quarter-finals of the 2022 French Open by Rafael Nadal, he followed up by losing just one more tour-level match for the rest of the season.

But at Indian Wells this week there was no bounce back from his Australian Open exit.

In his opening match, Djokovic could have been given a pass for being rusty as he was pushed to three sets by Aleksandar Vukic in his first competitive appearance in six weeks. The bigger surprise was that there wasn’t any improvement in the next round against Nardi, who became the lowest-ranked player to beat Djokovic at Masters 1000 or Grand Slam level.

“I made some really terrible unforced errors,” said Djokovic afterwards. “Just quite defensive tennis, and not much on the ball in the third…my level was really, really bad.”

For those looking for any signs of decline from Djokovic, his performance in the third set was notable.

Nardi had only previously won four tour-level matches but took control of the decider early on and finished with 16 winners in the set against just two from Djokovic, whose groundstrokes lacked penetration on the slower courts at Indian Wells.

Djokovic has now lost three times this year; to Nardi, to Alex de Minaur at the United Cup, and to Sinner at the Australian Open. It is just the second time since 2018 that he has reached March without winning a title, and the only other time was 2022 when he wasn’t able to travel to Australia due to Covid-19 restrictions.

Having ups and downs in a season is almost unavoidable for Djokovic given how he has trimmed his schedule down in recent years.

He now focuses his calendar almost entirely around peaking at the Grand Slams and all of the last few seasons have featured some surprise losses in spring (Lorenzo Musetti and Dusan Lajovic in 2023, Jiri Vesely and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in 2022, Dan Evans and Aslan Karatsev in 2021). Since 2018 Djokovic has also only won one tournament (Dubai 2020) in the period between the Australian Open and the clay Masters 1000 in Madrid.

Yet when the Grand Slams roll around he has been almost invincible.

The difference this season, though, is that Djokovic does not already have a Grand Slam title in his pocket from Melbourne. He perhaps has some doubts over his level, especially after three recent losses to Sinner, and might be more concerned about his Australian Open exit than his shock loss to Nardi given the stakes.

Certainly the level of performances so far this season seem below Djokovic’s usual standard. Even before losing to Sinner at the Australian Open he had dropped sets in three of five matches, and at Indian Wells he had spoken about wanting to “build my game” over the tournament, which he wasn’t able to do.

He also admitted that he finds himself in a “negative cycle”.

“No titles this year, that’s not something I’m used to. I was starting the season most of my career with a Grand Slam win or Dubai win or any other tournament.

“But it’s fine, it’s part of the sport and you just have to accept it. Some you win, some you lose. Hopefully, I will win some more. I’ll still keep going.

“I guess every trophy that eventually comes my way is going to be great, obviously to break the negative cycle a little bit that I’m having the last three to four tournaments where I haven’t been close to my best.”

Father Time has not seemed to factor into Djokovic’s career up until now, but he turns 37 in May and is the last of the ‘Big Four’ still going strong.

Roger Federer has not been around for almost two years now, Andy Murray looks set to retire after the summer, and Nadal has only played seven matches since the start of 2023. The breaking up of career-long rivalries might not be entirely inconsequential when it comes to analysing Djokovic’s form this season.

“I remember John McEnroe saying [on TV]…that when Bjorn Borg retired he felt like a part of him also retired. He kept going. But I must say that it’s a similar feeling I have with Roger retiring and Rafa not playing much at all,” revealed Djokovic ahead of Indian Wells.

“It’s a strange feeling. I try to find a new rival and I had some great matches with Alcaraz, Sinner lately, but they still remain the two biggest rivals I’ve ever had.”

Djokovic, who is next set to play the Miami Open, will remain world No. 1 over the coming weeks, as he has no ranking points to defend.

But looking further ahead, the future for the 24-time Grand Slam winner looks perhaps less bright than it has in a while.