Assessing Alcaraz: How does defending champion find spark ahead of Indian Wells?

When was the last time Carlos Alcaraz entered a Masters 1000 as the third favourite?

And has there been a time in his entire career that he has entered a tournament with such scrutiny over his play?

Since making his breakthrough on the big stage at Indian Wells two years ago, Alcaraz has been on a steep and rapid rise. When he beat Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon last summer he seemed to have the tennis world at his feet. He looked to be the present and the future of men’s tennis.

But such dizzying standards have proved impossible to sustain, even for such a superstar.

Alcaraz has not won a title since Wimbledon and at the end of last year put his post-summer dip in form down to “tiredness and mental exhaustion” after a demanding season.

Three months into 2024 and it still seems like he’s not found his pre-Wimbledon all-conquering level ahead of his Indian Wells title defence.

The electrifying shot-making has still been there for the most part, but the results have not been as strong (6-3 for the year) and he was surprisingly flat in defeat to Alexander Zverev in the Australian Open quarters. His comments after losing to Nicolas Jarry in the Buenos Aires semi-finals in February were also revealing.

“It’s a shame to see that I haven’t improved some things in my concentration since 2023,” said Alcaraz. “There’s no other way, it’s something pending, and my level of play is based on the level of attitude and energy I’m in.”

After having to pull out of Rio in his first match due to injury, Alcaraz returned earlier this month to face Rafael Nadal at an exhibition in Las Vegas. In attendance was Vegas resident Andre Agassi, who highlighted an area of “concern” that he saw with Alcaraz.

“I really love his game on the move, when he’s in flight, the dynamics and his ability to use the geometry and the pace he can inject,” he said.

“I do get a little concerned for him sometimes when he’s on the static side. When his feet don’t have to move as much sometimes he doesn’t know where to direct that energy and he gets set a little too early, not quite the same conviction on his shots when he can be in control of the point.”

The question around Alcaraz at the moment seems to be whether he needs to tweak something.

But his spectacular shot-making has got him to where he is and has netted two Grand Slam titles and time as world No. 1. It’s also made him a huge fan favourite. As Tim Henman said: “We need to be careful of what we wish for.”

Agassi believes Alcaraz is still trying to “figure out what he’s going to rely on to create that consistent pressure for his opponent” – and has backed him to do it.

“He’s going to find it, he’s only 20. It’s going to be beautiful when he does. I hope it’s soon and often,” he said.

If there’s a tournament where Alcaraz will rediscover his mojo it’s probably Indian Wells, where the slower court conditions give him time to line up and rip his shots.

Two years ago he blazed his way to the semis, beating defending champion Cameron Norrie and then pushing Nadal close in a pulsating three-set clash. Last year he was unstoppable as he swatted aside Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev to become the first man to win Indian Wells without losing a set since Roger Federer in 2017.

Both Sinner and Medvedev might be fancying their chances of flipping the script this time.

Sinner comes into the tournament riding a 15-match winning streak and having won the Australian Open in very impressive fashion. Medvedev made the final in Melbourne and seems to be playing close to his best level again.

The same could not be said for Alcaraz, but it’s easy to forget given his incredible success that he is still just 20 and is the youngest player in the top 10. Sinner is two years older and Medvedev eight. Holger Rune, 20, is the only other player under the age of 25 in the top 10. There’s still a lot of time ahead for Alcaraz to improve, a lot of time for him to learn, and a lot of time for him to win many more titles.