UFC 318 Paths to Victory: Can Dustin Poirier win the trilogy against Max Holloway for a fairytale ending?

UFC 318 takes place on Saturday evening, with Max Holloway defending his ‘BMF’ title against Dustin Poirier. It’s a trilogy bout where Poirier won both of the first two meetings, but all of that takes a backseat to the biggest storyline of the week, the end of Poirier’s illustrious career.

Saturday will be the final time “The Diamond” makes the walk to the octagon, doing so in front of his hometown crowd in New Orleans, in a pay-per-view event built to send him off in style. Can Poirier do it one last time, or will Holloway spoil the weekend and become the first man to successfully defend the BMF title?

Let’s dive in and see.

Paths to victory for Max Holloway at UFC 318

At this point in his career, what more is there to be said about Max Holloway? The man is a former champion, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, owns a number of UFC records, and he’s still only 33 years old. In fact, in lieu of talking about all his incredible statistics, just look at this graphic.

Holloway is quite literally in a world of his own when it comes to volume. When “Blessed” fights, you know what’s coming: a Tasmanian Devil whirlwind of punches, seemingly without end. Only now, it’s not just punches. For much of his career, Holloway was almost exclusively a boxer, but in recent years, he’s added a kicking game to his arsenal as well, including spinning kicks to the body that fundamentally changed his matchup with Gaethje. Even though Holloway is already 15 years into his fight career, the man is still adding new wrinkles to his game.

He’ll need them on Saturday. Though it was a long time ago — and Holloway is much better than he was then — Poirier’s defensive craft, diverse toolbox, and power gave Holloway a lot of trouble in their rematch. The problem was apparent to Holloway in the moment, as he repeatedly told his corner Poirier was “blocking funny.” That Holloway didn’t have enough tools to change things up. This Holloway does, and he’ll need to lean into these new weapons.

The fundamental issue Holloway has to solve in this fight is that Poirier is an equally skilled boxer, but packs more power than “Blessed.” This means that equal exchanges aren’t equal at all. And with Poirier’s defense being so tight against the boxing of Holloway, allowing him to land clean counters to disrupt Max’s elongated combinations, Holloway needs other tools, not just to score with, but to open up his bread and butter stuff.

The kicks will be a big help in this regard. In their second fight, Holloway only attempted two leg kicks. A year later, when he rematched Alexander Volkanovski, he threw 55. Against Gaethje, that number rose to 69. It’s the single-biggest change in Holloway’s game in recent years, and it’s massively beneficial. Not only does it disrupt timing and score points, it also opens up more traditional offense and serves as a complement to Holloway’s body work. Max has always been great at targeting the body, and at lightweight, that’s even more necessary. Up a weight class, Holloway is in for more wars of attrition, and the body work was instrumental in beating Gaethje at UFC 300. Expect the same here.

Finally, a potential difference maker in this fight is Holloway’s improved footwork. Max has always had sharp hands, but now his feet are equally on point. In the rematch, Poirier was able to catch Holloway out of position with some regularity and score with lunging shots. That should be less viable this time around, meaning Holloway should mostly be in exchanges where the terms are even.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Paths to victory for Dustin Poirier at UFC 318

If Holloway is going to look to work over the legs and body, what should Poirier do? To paraphrase Thanos, aim for the head.

Why don’t we check out that Holloway graphic one more time. Notice anything else about it?

Hint: for as high up as Max is on strikes landed, he’s also the leader in strikes absorbed by a country mile. That’s not exactly a surprise since throwing punches usually results in return fire, but still, it’s kinda of jarring to see just how many blows Holloway has taken in his career. And those shots are starting to add up. Two fights ago, Justin Gaethje became the first person to knock Holloway down. Then, in his last fight, Max got knocked out for the first time in his career. That’s a concerning trajectory for a man who has been fist-fighting the best competition in the world for well over a decade.

Poirier has to come into this fight assuming Holloway will be better prepared for his defense than the last go-around. But for the offensive improvements Holloway has made over his career, Max’s striking defense hasn’t advanced at the same rate. Don’t get me wrong, Holloway has solid head movement and rolls punches well, but his game still rests on having an all-time great chin, and that may no longer be the case. Even in their second matchup, Poirier was able to hurt Max with some regularity. That should be easier now.

Secondly, Poirier needs to lean into the leg-kicking well. For as much as he’s improved by adding his own kicks, Holloway can still have his legs taken out from underneath him, and the calf kick is a natural counter to Holloway’s jab, the weapon that should be first priority to disrupt. Inside and outside low kicks to off-balance Max, should score and set up the big left hand for Poirier.

Lastly, I’d really like to see Poirier mix up his offense like he did in the rematch. I doubt Poirier can get Holloway down, but he found real success in their second fight, forcing clinches and using his physicality to shorten the fight some and mute Holloway’s offense. Something similar is a good idea on Saturday.

Questions

1. How does Max react to suffering his first KO? Some fighters are never the same, and it seems very obvious to me that Alexander Volkanovski was completely shook coming off his KO loss to Islam Makhachev. If Holloway brings that sort of energy to this one, he’s gonna have a bad night.
2. How does Poirier’s pending retirement and the hometown crowd affect “The Diamond”? Fighters react to everything differently, and while a retirement fight and the energy of a hometown crowd can pump you up, all that pressure can sometimes overwhelm or detract from a fighter’s performance.
3. What if Max points to the ground in the first moments of the fight? Honestly, I just want to see this happen. No need to wait for the final 10 seconds. This is the final fight of Dustin’s career. Just step into the phone booth and set it off.

Prediction

I think we’re in for another all-time classic on Saturday. Poirier is one of the five most exciting fighters in MMA history, and Holloway is at least in the conversation for Top 10. When these two dudes get locked in a cage, it’s almost always fireworks. With this being Poirier’s last ride, he’s going to leave it all out there, and Holloway damn sure doesn’t want to go to 0-3 against someone else. Both men are giving us everything they’ve got, and in that scenario, it’s hard not to root for the sentimental, fairytale ending.

Dustin Poirier is one of the most well-respected fighters in MMA, and one of the few unimpeachably good guys in the sport. He’s what MMA should aspire to be, and so, for his last time out, I have to hope the fates converge to give him the perfect sendoff: a win in his hometown with his signature move, which has never once worked. Maybe now it finally will.

Dustin Poirier def. Max Holloway via submission (guillotine choke) — R4, 1:19.